tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg August 7, 2015 4:00pm-4:31pm EDT
u.s. stocks falling, led by the dow. report came in line with estimates. joe: but the question is, "what'd you miss?". september rate hike, could anything change? alix: where the good jobs are, we will look at unusual places that are hiring. joe: and we talking turkey. crucial to the world economy, but next door to a war. alix: we will begin with the markets. you are looking at an industrial average, the longest losing streak since 2011. now trading at a six-month low. down for seven straight sessions. it came out of nowhere. joe: we have been having
weakness, the market not impressive lately, but it feels like the fed rate hike is getting closer, people are getting nervous. odds in the market, so the september rate hike creeping back up. some agitation is happening. the dollar at a four-month high. more pressure on the market. alix: you are looking at and s&p .00 that close above average it was today's lower for most of the day. a big reason you saw the s&p 500 under pressure was because of biotech stocks wiped out over the last few days. it is kind of a classic -- winners as -- still of winners - - fail of winners. joe: obviously, that is a huge story. alix: we will take a look at potentially more pain for oil prices. this is a chart looking at
future contracts and oil prices. this line is the future of contracts. this right here is the commodity price. that weekend in may, the contract has sold off by 40%. hasn't sold off by 62%. the idea is, there could be more downside to come. 28 brent, that could last years and we are only in year seven. joe: not only are traitors optimistic more than they should be, but the pain could be with us for a long time. alix: 28 years. joe: we will look at a chart that relates to the job report. what did today's job report, what effect did it have on the federal reserve? first, the green line, the measure of the normal unemployment rate. 5.3%, that is what is quoted.
one of these, the blue line is captions --u6, this this captures people who are working part-time, but maybe want a full-time job, it is a broader look at the unemployment rate. u3, the main unemployment rate is low, but one thing that was said is it may not show that the labor market is as strong as it is, because of the gap between u 6 and u3. and u3 move together. but there is some slack. u6 is showing slack. the good news is this is trending down, u6 continues to improve.
the slack and broader look at the unemployment rate continues to improve. janet yellen has to like that. alix: this is my favorite chart. joe: thank you. jpmorgan andtz of michelle girard are with us to break down the market reaction, but also the fed reaction. thank you for joining us. david, what did you make of today's action, what did the number mean for the market? was in lineeport with what we are looking for to keep a september rate hike on the table. we got the unemployment rate lower. this was a good, but not great report. at the bottom line, september looks like it is in the cards. it wasn't a sure thing, but it is not a bad thing. alix: what would the fed needed
to see to not hike in september? >> to find that the economy has slowed materially. i'm not sure that there will be enough evidence on the u.s. data front that would steer them off course. the more likely scenario would be tighter financial conditions, so you have a situation where some global development, maybe in china, greece reasserts itself, something developed between now and mid september that leads to tighter financial conditions. that is the scenario that i think has the more likely possibility. i do not think that it will. but we will probably be looking out for something like that, rather than they can possibly get off the zero.
we had a someone speak to us about wage growth. >> the feds inflation target is 2%, has the 1.2% in the quarter pc deflator, so we are below the target. wage growth is going nowhere. it seems backwards. we do not see evidence of inflation, weakness in the labor market, why are we raising rates? joe: what is the answer. no labor pressure, no wage pressure, no inflation pressure why should the fed raise rates? >> the urgency is, zero interest rates will ultimately lead to a misallocation of resources. the decision that people are making when interest rates are at levels not supported by economic fundamentals ultimately may come back to haunt us. the repercussions, what i fear is that while everybody seems to
be focused on the consequences of keeping rate at zero for too long is really just higher inflation. i feel that that is not the case . if that is not the risk, it is not a problem. the more worrisome situation is that it leads to some other problem, financial stability issues, or some other actual underlying problem generated by the idea that zero rates have make inappropriate decisions. ultimately the consequences of that are greater than just a fact of inflation overshoot. alix: do you see signs of a bubble? >> there is a bubble in government bonds, you need to figure out how to let that deflate. " the nail on the head. probably more harmful for the economy than helpful. the fed should take a page at
wayne gretzky's look -- book, can we get the policy rate off of the bottom? bubble inere is a treasuries, where should the 10 year yield being? joe: -- 275 -- 2.75%.ound we have an aging demographic leaning toward savings. our view is that rates are heading higher and the yield purpose, given that global forces should put a lid on longer-term yields, but we're also aiming higher at a grinding face. alix: do you agree, michelle? >> from an economic perspective, the old rule of thumb was that 10 year yields should be looking at gop growth.
to come inunning 2.5% -- you are looking at the be 4%.ical level of may i'm not sure that we need to worry about yield moving to those kinds of levels, but it does speak to the fact that there is liquidity that has found its way into the bond market. joe: michelle, what keeps you up at night? is in solideconomy shape. it is not spectacular, but it is solid. i don't see imbalances. it is the longer-term questions about the ramifications of keeping rate at these levels. having had it read at these levels for so long, the bigger question, price target. in a world where central banks don't have, by their own
admission, don't have much control over wages for inflation, but that is their target. it forces them to take actions , or may not be for the benefit of the accounting. these are bigger issues and tostions, this is not going affect markets in the next couple of weeks, but those are the questions i struggle with. alix: david, you mentioned a bubble in government bonds, is that your nightmare? thinkt is something we about. given the central banking backdrop we can create a sigh of relief. central banks are on top of the issue and support government bond prices where they are right now. biggest risk is china. china continues to slow, they have issues. they are trying to liberalize capital and the financial system interest-rate, but they are also slow.
to the old ways of depreciating currency and alying on exports, or with transition to a more consumption driven economy. either way, they will influence global market. joe: thank you. alix: when we come back, which group of workers is doing great for a change, according to the new unemployment numbers. a andswer might lead you confused. dz♪
joe: before the break we asked ,hich workers have rebounded teen workers. alix: labor market is gathering and extending to more parts of the workforce, the idea being he will not hire teams unless he cannot find someone else. joe: you are not excited to hire teens, but when things get tight, you start to hire those on the margins of the workforce. alix: let's get to the top headlines. thatberg news has learned capital management has a stake and american express, that is according to people with knowledge of the matter. they are going to pursue friendly -- cardholder changes. still less of them 5% of american express, the holding is not public. u.s. consumer borrowing
rose more than forecasted on bigger credit card balances and auto lending. federal reserve says there was a 20 billion dollar increase. that is the fastest any year. alix: comedy central says 3.5 million viewers watched jon stewart to say goodbye to the daily show. skewered is not saying anything specific about plans, but during the farewell he said that he would not stay away. he has built a loyal following of viewers in the 16 years his show was on. not bad, 3.5 million. , from bloomberg news, you have been diving into the unemployment data and discovering places where employment is taking off. >> there are a few hundred industries catalog and at the three that are showing the
biggest growth, two of them you might expect, but one is surprising. we have every reason and at you can see them in the chart. wineries.es and groomers.dustry, joe: dog walkers. >> and the third, i don't know what to make of it, but mental health practitioners. alix: maybe obamacare and insurance, they will cover more people and make it more affordable. joe: let's be honest, modern society. alix: the brewery is fascinating, the rise of the craft brewers. that speaks to the point that we are taking more beer. beer is really the only
thing i go for anymore, i don't know about you guys. alix: i am with him on that. and other chart sums up everything from earnings, to headcount. weekly is a look at payrolls and it is basically the number of people who are employed times the amount of money they make per hour, times the number of hours they work per week. it sums up how much the collective paycheck is growing. it seems to sort of track nominal gdp growth over time. this is a proxy for output growth. it started to accelerate last year. , weas come down since then are settling into things like 4% growth trend. it is consistent with other economic data here in joe: -- here. those inhly flows and the labor force, what is going on?
>> you look at the unemployment rate and job creation, this goes underneath that and shows the transition from different categories. so people who are employed, are they unemployed, are they in the labor force, so what we see in this chart is the number of people who are going from having jobs to leaving the labor force and vice versa. are at those rates all-time highs. that is a good sign, because it retiring andare they feel confident enough to do that and people who have been outside the labor force are coming in and able to find work. alix: thank you so much. , the mining back sector has been hit hard by commodities, but what part of the sector is still going strong? ♪
joe: "what'd you miss?" we asked which part of the mining sector seemed unruffled -- lumber. they are doing all right. part of that, lumber is volatile, but it could also depend on housing. if construction picks up, you meet -- you need lumber. joe: that would be my theory. alix: now to turkey, we are
talking about the country. every week we will take a look at a country that has an effect on the market. joe: it is at the crossroads of east and west, next door to the syrian civil war. alix: joining us is michael harris from renaissance capital. the top-ranked analyst that covers the country. michael, how do you invest in a country that has dramatic political environment? the local bond markets, they are reflective of what the risk premium is. you decide if the evaluations are attractive enough. most important, you take the view, are things likely to move any practical direction or will they spiral out of control, where there is loss of discipline associated with market forces? being engageda of in countries that are dependent on global markets.
the riskier markets are ones that can shut their doors. that is where you lose your shirt. but otherwise, opportunities come out with countries like turkey, because they ultimately have to have markets to sustain growth trajectory. joe: something that has on on, coming out ofal turkey, investors are pulling out. what do you know about turkey that everyone else does not know? >> one thing is the idea of honor ability. -- vulnerability. --ntries overseas even with overheat even with surpluses. you're not going through brussels -- some bubbles, even though they may have deficits. you look atg, when politics they look messy, but ultimately a lot of people have
been worried about the consolidation of power under the president and the behavior of the country, but we have been in a long election cycle and in the end result was a coalition. that tells us that the .opulation is not allowing it if you are willing to ride through this and to deal with ows, the likelihood is we will have a balance. it takes time, but this is not a trajectory towards authoritarianism. it is a fear, but it is probably way overdone. bullishu are relatively on turkey, what is your timeframe for that? the coalition should be by august 23, so it will be proven quite soon if i am right or wrong. turkey is capable of dealing
with the coalition. in the 1990's, they created the coalition, time after time, the military was behind the scenes throwing them together to keep the islamists out. this is the first time where we have a discussion led by an alamic party try to find partner. it takes a long time, because it is a 45 day window to form it. the market does not like that uncertainty. the other thing, the central bank, which the market doesn't like, is on the cusp of normalizing policy. they announced it last week. but you have other negative headlines weighing on the market. so it is possible, first politically the formation of the coalition, secondly the change theentral bank behavior, so market in turkey could change very recently. joe: what is the thing that keeps you up at night, revolving around turkey? >> turkey is honorable to the
dollar rate, because corporations here take dollar debt. they are nimble, and they are leveraged in the wrong currency. if the dollar goes to .9, it will weaken turkish currency. but my perception is that we are not in an environment -- everybody knows what is going on with the fed, if they are in a position to scramble and raise -- have inflation, but if it is just adjustment, i feel relaxed we can get through this. alix: great perspective. joe: we will be right back. ♪
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